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Labor hold, with a swing against Cassandra Fernando. While this electorate has the more of the Labor friendly parts of Casey council here, there is a large portion of the electorate that has a mortgage.
Agree SpaceFish a bigger swing here than Bruce as it is more mortgage belt than Bruce. However, the strongest Labor part of Casey council is Doveton/Eummmering followed by Hallam which are all Solid Labor suburbs. The only Solid Labor suburb here in Hampton Park.
Melbourne’s property market has been stagnant for the past couple of years, and is now expected to go backwards next year. Will this have any political consequences?
holt and bruce will be medium term coalition targets
Nimalan,
You are correct, if my memory serves me correctly it was Doveton that helped Labor narrowly hold on here in 2004.
Nicholas,
If housing prices go down steadily then I don’t think there will too much of backlash however, if there were a violent correction then the government would be in serious trouble here.
John,
I agree especially if both have margins after the next election under 4% which possible.
@ Spacefish
Agree if was not for Doveton labor would have lost Holt in 2004 even with Hallam and Hampton Park.
@spacefish the other thing that will help them specifically in Bruce is if sheds the rest or even a little bit more of Dandenong it wlll lkely flip also the excess in Bruce is likely to transfer to Holt. If holt were to take in parts of La Trobe lkely the rest of Casey lga it too would likely flip. so labor will be in trouble shortly
I have similar thoughts for this seat as I do Bruce, probably the sort of seat that decides if the LNP manage to form a majority or not. Bruce is said to be buffered by Hill’s personal vote but is held on a tighter margin, latest round of MRP from Accent/Redbridge had this seat competitive. Few different data points showing a 5%+ swing in Victoria and more granular pollstars claiming the outer suburbs and regions account for a disproportionate amount of it. I think Holt is in play, but Labor certainly have the edge with their current margin.
Liberals will not win Holt or Bruce or
Majority government in 2025
Pretty reasonable chance that ends up being correct yes
However the idea of the Liberals capturing either of Bruce/Holt and a majority honestly feels more realistic at this point than Menzies and/or Deakin flipping to Labor. I don’t think Labor have any realistic targets except for Sturt and maybe a GRN seat in QLD or something.
@mick never say never but i think your right i dont think they will get enough seats for majority given the 3 teal seats in nsw wont flip. they likely wont win majority without holt and/or bruce
Is the key here:
* Does Fernando get a sophomore surge? If so, could that be enough to hold off any overall swing against Labor?
* Is the movement away from the ALP already baked in from last time? So less movement than you may get in other seats.
Both of these give the ALP a good shot of holding on here. Which we really shouldn’t be talking about.
I would not be surprised if none of Aston Menzies or Deakin were won by Labor but one may be won by Labor. Seats other than that like Dunkley and Mcewen will not shift. I suspect the teal Seats will not be won by the liberals.
Realignments don’t just take one electoral cycle, numerous factors would have cushioned the reaction against Labor in 2022, whilst in 2025 the drivers behind such a move are more intense. Mortgage belt areas in growth corridors will be more disproportionately affected by COL and interest rates, the lack of good public transport infrastructure in places like here and Hawke don’t help people feeling penned in, miles from the city and facing steep economic challenges.
My instinct is still that Labor holds due to the size of the margin but if the swing is on come election night then Holt is absolutely in play IMO.
3-4% swing to the liberals with an outside chanc of an upset win.
@mick none will be won by Labor of those first 3. McEwen will flip to the Liberals in my opinion. Dunkley will be lineball and could either way. Belyea is sittin on about a 3% margin after the by election and redistributio. she only won the by election because peta murphys personal vote likely transferred to Belyea out of sympathy. Also those who voted labor out of sympathy for Labor and Peta Murhys passing. in a regular by elction due to retirement or other reasons the seat would have been lost. Liberals can absolutely win Dunkley.
on the liberal seats im not writing the liberals off in victoria.